Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4833 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to December 18th.
In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton (designed capacity, actual capacity of 3 million tons) PTA plant will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent load increase situation. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.
Geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, have limited the upward potential due to expectations of an excess of crude oil. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.
Downstream polyester inventory pressure is not high, and a polymerization unit with an annual output of 125000 tons in Haining has been heated up and restarted, resulting in a slight increase in polyester production to 86%. Rigid demand remains stable under high loads, but lacks substantial driving force. From the perspective of terminal weaving, some spring orders have been placed, but the performance of new orders continues to be insufficient. Recently, new inquiries and orders have continued to narrow.
Business analysts believe that the continued volatility in the crude oil market provides sufficient support for PTA costs. However, with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity and sufficient supply in the subsequent PTA market, the weak fundamentals may suppress price increases while maintaining rigid demand on the demand side.
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