This week (12.14-12.20), the nickel market experienced a downward expansion. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, spot nickel was reported at 124608 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.62%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expects the rate cut to narrow to 50 basis points by 2025. The scheduled interest rate cut is in line with expectations, and the pace of interest rate cuts will be slowed down next year, causing the US dollar to rise to a two-year high and bearish on the metal market.
On the supply side: According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, there is a cumulative surplus of 114100 tons of refined nickel in 2024. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, with a significant decrease in inventory during the week. As of December 20th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29227 tons, a decrease of 1337 tons during the week; The qualified quantity for delivery is 35390 tons, with an increase of 706 tons within the week. On December 20th, LME nickel inventory was 161436 tons, a decrease of 3072 tons during the week.
On the demand side: The stainless steel market continues to weaken, with low willingness to reduce production and high output. Downstream demand for low-priced goods is being replenished as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. As of December 20th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the beginning of the month. The demand for electroplating and alloys remains stable.
Market forecast: Weak demand, inventory pressure, hindered upward movement of nickel prices, continued pattern of strong supply and weak demand, attention to macroeconomic policies, expected short-term fluctuations in nickel prices.
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