Analysis: This week (12-9-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong has not yet escaped the downward channel, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.32%. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure is that the maintenance equipment in the early stage has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the sluggish urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2750 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Prediction: Due to seasonal reasons, fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, industrial demand has followed suit, supply is sufficient, and later supply pressure may not be resolved for a long time. But the imagination of regional differentiation in the later stage of the market may become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. On the other hand, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and there may be a shortage of local supply. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week, but some regions may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.
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