Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and rose in early December, with some spot prices of certain brands rising narrowly. As of December 9th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.73% compared to early December.
Cause analysis
On the supply side, the overall operating rate of PC in China has rebounded in early December. Jiaxing Emperor and other companies that entered the maintenance phase gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate increased from 75% at the beginning of the month to over 80%. The average weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of around 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has made it difficult for manufacturers to raise prices, and the auction market is also not optimistic. The market supply side is not providing good support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, after the rapid downward trend of bisphenol A in China in the early stage, the spot price at the end of last month has reached a low point. In addition, some companies’ maintenance and delayed production of new equipment have added to the positive news on the supply side. At the end of last month, the shipment of raw material phenol was delayed at the port, while the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks were stable. Influenced by various favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A rebounded, and the mentality of the industry strengthened. Overall, bisphenol A remains stable and strong, providing increased support for PC costs.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in the previous period. The logic of weak rigid demand purchasing in the market continues, and the wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the end of the year approaches, downstream factories are taking over goods to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Purchasing and price chasing operations are cautious, and only some companies have seen an increase in operating rates. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market was generally stable with some gains in early December. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, providing strong support for PC costs. Within the past ten days, the load of domestic polymerization plants has rebounded by more than 5%, with loose supply remaining unchanged. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the reasons for this upward trend are twofold: firstly, PC prices have fallen below the annual low, and secondly, the cost side benefits brought about by the rise in raw materials. However, the profound mismatch between supply and demand cannot be alleviated in the short term, so the future PC market may be hindered from rising. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend on the cost side.
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