According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market has shown an upward trend recently. As of November 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% from 76800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Battery grade lithium carbonate broke through the 80000 yuan mark and rebounded to 81000 yuan/ton, up 2.02% from 79400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Demand side: The continuous increase in consumption of new energy vehicles drives the installation of batteries
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million respectively, an increase of 48% and 49.6% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.8% of the total new vehicle sales. The installed capacity of power batteries was 59.2GWh, a month on month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51%.
Supply side: domestic and international supply growth easing
Domestically speaking, data shows that in October 2024, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 59000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the previous month. The estimated domestic production of lithium carbonate in November is 58900 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
From an international perspective, overseas mining companies have lowered their future production guidelines in their third quarter reports. Mainstream Australian mines have recently released financial reports showing that Liontown plans to lower its ore production target for the end of fiscal year 2027 from 3 million tons per year to 2.8 million tons, with an annual production of 260000 to 295000 tons of SC6 spodumene concentrate; Pilbara plans to put the Ngungaju factory under maintenance starting from December 1, 2024, and lower the production guidance for lithium concentrate in the 2025 fiscal year by 100000 tons to 700000 to 74000 tons.
Under the improvement of marginal effects, lithium carbonate maintained a continuous 10 week destocking trend. Data shows that as of the week of November 8th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 110700 tons, a decrease of 3345 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the smelting plant was 35800 tons, a decrease of 4701 tons compared to the previous period, and the inventory of the smelting plant was at its lowest point this year.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that although the current improvement in supply has led to a strong trend in lithium carbonate, the expectation of overall oversupply of lithium carbonate in the long run has not changed, and it is expected that prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.
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