Market summary: The phenomenon of supply differentiation between the north and south regions still exists during the week, and the supply in the east China region is still tight. With the support of cost, the domestic acrylonitrile market is fluctuating upwards.
On the supply side: During the week, a 130000 ton production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1 # acrylonitrile plant was recently shut down for maintenance. Currently, the remaining two lines are operating, and the overall load has dropped to less than 50%. The capacity utilization rate in the East China region has decreased, and the supply is tight. The northern market is basically operating normally, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has reached 73.42%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week was 67900 tons, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 49400 tons. Currently, there is no inventory pressure in the industry.
In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6870-7000 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of propylene enterprises is mostly at a low level. With the rise of propylene prices to a high level, the downstream sentiment of gradually increasing prices has weakened, which may support or weaken the price trend.
In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 68.82%, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period last week at 61.5%, indicating an increase in demand for acrylonitrile.
Market expectation: Currently, the supply differentiation between the North and South regions continues, and the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain strong. The supply in the East China region is still tight, and the current industry inventory is not under pressure. Main manufacturers will continue to raise prices. However, with abundant supply in the north and overall supply-demand balance in the country, there are also obstacles to continued market growth.
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