Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently stopped rising and returned to decline, with some spot prices of certain brands falling back to pre holiday levels. As of October 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16050 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.31% compared to early October.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: Since October, the overall operating rate of PC in China has increased at a high level. As of the time of writing, the industry average operating rate has risen from 79% at the end of last month to around 82%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and the previous good news is gradually exhausted. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has significantly decreased recently. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and flat, with average cost support. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, the heavy load of bisphenol A industry has returned before the holiday, resulting in an increase in on-site supply of goods. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of purchasing weak demand has continued to this day. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the stocking market before and after the festival, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to the traditional peak season consumption not meeting expectations, it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the PC market has given up its previous gains and is showing a weak trend. The upstream bisphenol A market is accelerating its decline, and the cost support for PC is weakening. The load of domestic aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply remains high. The current PC prices have basically returned to the pre holiday low point, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet been realized, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. The positive sentiment in the macro commodity market improved in the early stage, but the market momentum did not substantially improve, resulting in a stagnant and declining market trend. However, considering that PC prices have fallen back to the low point range of the year, although there is currently no positive fundamental driving force, Business Society expects that the PC market may maintain a slight adjustment in the future.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |