According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the end of the National Day holiday, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a surge and a decline. As of October 17th, the average market price in East China was 7385 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. The geopolitical situation has once again become tense, with international crude oil prices strengthening and the cost support of polyester short fibers rising. In addition, China announced a series of economic stimulus policies before the holiday, and the commodity market atmosphere is relatively warm. However, downstream terminal demand has shown average performance, and at the same time, the international crude oil market has fallen, leading to a decline in the price of polyester staple fibers.
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Looking ahead, on October 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.22 per barrel. The significant decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for PTA. Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the demand outlook.
PTA factory equipment has experienced frequent restarts after short-term shutdowns, and the current industry operating rate is around 88%. It will continue to operate at a high level in the near future, and the supply of goods remains abundant. In terms of price, as of October 17th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month.
Due to the impact of cost decline and the lack of significant increase in terminal orders, the signal of peak season for yarn mills has not appeared, and they are purchasing short fibers or maintaining sporadic rigid demand purchases. Most of them adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the focus of market transactions is weakening. It is expected that the consumption of raw materials purchased by terminal factories in the early stage will reach a low level by the end of October, and the expectation of replenishment for essential needs will to some extent support their prices.
Business analysts believe that on the cost side, with the decline in international crude oil prices and limited maintenance of PTA facilities in recent times, the overall market supply is sufficient, and the focus of cost support has shifted downwards. The terminal maintains normal production, consumes more raw materials in the early stage of stocking, and has weak procurement follow-up. Short term fundamentals are weak and difficult to change, and the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.
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