The price trend of soda ash continues to decline in September

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1810 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.83% during the month and a decrease of 47.77% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 82.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 31.07% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is high, the production of soda ash is sufficient, the inventory pressure of enterprises continues to exist, and market confidence is insufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market is mainly weak, with excessive consumption of inventory and limited demand for soda ash. The market trading atmosphere is quiet, and under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices continued to decline weakly during the month. As of September 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton, while in Central China, the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.72 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 13.45 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 14.44%. The spot market in the glass market continues to be weak, downstream demand is weak, inventory consumption is the main factor, market trading is insufficient, and the price market is running weakly.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash in some areas has slightly rebounded recently. Although the operating rate of spot soda ash plants is still high and the supply of goods is sufficient, there has been a slight increase in the downstream before the holiday, which has boosted the soda ash market. The intention of operators to rise has increased, and it is expected that the price of soda ash may slightly rebound in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.