According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, the average PTA spot price in East China was 4811 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.
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Specifically, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate supports the oil futures market, coupled with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the rebound of crude oil. As of September 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.01 per barrel.
On the supply side, next week a 2.2 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit will restart in the East China region, another 1.2 million ton PTA unit will restart, and a 1 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit in the Southwest will restart. The current industry operating rate is around 80%, and it is expected that the supply will increase in the future. The operating rate will further increase, and the spot market supply is still abundant.
From a downstream perspective, the poor quality of “Golden Nine” and the sluggish demand during peak seasons have led to poor market confidence, causing the polyester industry to experience a slight decline in production to around 85%. The terminal market is in a lukewarm state, with a focus on maintaining essential needs for raw material procurement. Some small terminal enterprises still face financial pressure. The mainstream polyester staple fiber factories have experienced short shutdowns due to weather conditions, which has tightened the liquidity of some brand sources and boosted the market.
Business analysts believe that macroeconomic interest rate cuts provide support for the oil market, and in the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and remain stable, while cost support is still acceptable. Our own supply side will increase next week, but downstream polyester production is slowly increasing, and demand continues to improve, helping to improve PTA fundamentals. Overall, PTA prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.
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