According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2460 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.02% during the period, a month on month decline of 3.64%, and a year-on-year decline of 6.10%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline, with a weak macro outlook. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventories have accumulated. In addition, some downstream markets are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
As of the close on September 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2384 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2398 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2368 yuan/ton. It closed at 2371 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 635388 lots and a holding volume of 788828 lots, with a daily increase of 16863.
As of June 6th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:
Region/ Price
Shanxi region/ 2245-2250 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange
Liaoning region/ 2720 yuan/ton
Anhui region/ 2400 yuan/ton
Henan region/ 2320-2325 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange
In terms of cost, most coal mines maintain normal production and sales. At the end of last month, coal mines that were shut down due to completing monthly tasks gradually resumed normal production, and the overall coal supply level has rebounded. Some private mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton, and there is no significant fluctuation in the overall price focus. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream chloride: The maintenance plan for the East China plant has reduced the demand for chloride; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the loss exceeds the recovery, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 5th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 341.00-342.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be loose, and although traditional downstream production has increased, the magnitude is limited, which will have a certain drag on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate weakly.
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