According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market remained volatile and weakly adjusted this week (August 19-23). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 5335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the beginning of the week. Insufficient cost support, coupled with an expected increase in accumulated inventory, is detrimental to the PTA market.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Looking at the future, two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons in East China were briefly shut down last weekend and gradually restarted this week. A 1 million ton PTA plant in Southwest China is scheduled to restart on August 24th. The current operating rate of the domestic industry is around 86%, and the later announced PTA plant maintenance plan is limited. The market is concerned about the accelerated accumulation of PTA inventory.
On the cost side, concerns about the crude oil market, economy, and demand continue to exert pressure, but the trend of US oil destocking and the interference expectations of oil producing countries for the continuous decline in oil prices, as well as the impact of geopolitical risk factors, will cause crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound slightly. At present, the operating load of PX continues to be at a high level, but some PX factories have plans to shut down in September. At the same time, the increase in crude oil drive has provided some support for PX prices.
On the demand side, downstream polyester factories currently have no plans to shut down or reduce production of large facilities. The industry’s operating capacity remains around 83%, and there is limited room for improvement in operating capacity. Therefore, the demand for PTA remains weak. The peak season for traditional terminal demand is approaching. If demand rebounds as expected, it can boost confidence in the textile market and drive procurement enthusiasm. At present, most of them maintain a small amount of procurement for essential needs, with only a few downstream feedback showing signs of improvement in order volume. In the future, attention can be paid to the restart of the “Jin Jiu” polyester plant, or there may be a temporary phenomenon of buying at low prices.
Business analysts believe that the strengthening and consolidation of crude oil prices still provides support for PTA costs. However, the supply-demand contradiction of PTA is still prominent, and the peak demand season has not yet been concentrated. The positive driving force is not obvious at the moment, and the market is waiting for a turning point between the peak and off peak seasons. Short term PTA prices will continue to adjust weakly.
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