According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent weak consolidation of the local refined petroleum coke market has been the main trend. As of August 22, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1451.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from 1464.25 yuan/ton on August 11.
On the cost side: The crude oil market first rose and then fell. In the early stage, the crude oil market rose, partly due to the impact of the tense situation in the Middle East and the gradual easing of economic recession concerns, leading to consecutive increases in international oil prices. On the other hand, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels to 429.32 million barrels, exceeding expectations and leading to an upward trend in the crude oil market. In the later stage, due to the easing of geopolitical situation and the end of the peak oil season in the United States, the crude oil market experienced a significant decline due to various factors.
Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been average, with mainstream coke prices temporarily stable and transitioning, and some coke prices adjusted narrowly. Downstream procurement of petroleum coke is limited, and transactions are average. Recently, downstream enterprises of petroleum coke have been cautious in receiving goods and mainly purchase on demand, putting pressure on the market for imported petroleum coke shipments.
On the demand side: Currently, the overall trading of the silicon metal market is still inactive, and downstream metallurgical plants and polycrystalline silicon plants have reduced production, resulting in a weak intention to purchase raw materials. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and industry players’ bearish sentiment towards the market remains unchanged. Downstream organic silicon and powder mills have also shown caution in their procurement of metal silicon raw materials, mainly in the form of small orders for essential needs. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and the support for the petroleum coke market is average.
Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, while the upstream petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most companies are stabilizing their prices and shipping, while downstream companies are mainly observing and waiting.
In the off-season of aluminum processing in August, the inventory data of electrolytic aluminum shows good domestic supply and demand. As of August 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream areas was 790000 tons, compared to the inventory of 803000 tons on August 1 at the beginning of the month, with 13000 tons sold out. At the same time, the expectation of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has further boosted market expectations. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain essential procurement of petroleum coke.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall trading in the petroleum coke market is average, and downstream enterprises are cautious in their procurement, with a focus on receiving goods on demand; In addition, imported petroleum coke has recently been concentrated at the port, and the overall petroleum coke resources are abundant. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the petroleum coke market will be the main trend.
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