1、 Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
On August 9th, the domestic adipic acid market was sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 9th, adipic acid was 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton or 1.84% from last week. The focus of market trading has shifted downwards. At present, the market price range for adipic acid is between 8600-9500 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
Cost aspect:
The zero selling price of refined oil has been lowered again in this round. The retail price in 2024 has gone through seven upward adjustments, five downward adjustments, and three stranded adjustments. The negative value of crude oil change rate has increased during the cycle, which has suppressed the entire domestic chemical market. Recently, the price of pure benzene has fallen, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors. The main refinery prices have been lowered, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing.
Supply side:
From the perspective of market supply, in terms of equipment, the domestic adipic acid production load this week is around 70%, which has increased compared to last week. Price may be expected to decrease. Due to weak demand, the manufacturer’s shipment speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of favorable guidance on the supply side.
Demand side:
Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. Terminal procurement urgently needs support, with a shortage of orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the market maintains a weak trend. Currently, the market price of PA66 is around 20433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% from August 1st. In addition, the sluggish market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream fields, coupled with weak demand, is an important factor restricting the fundamental improvement of adipic acid.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society believes that on the cost side, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, fundamental concerns may cause short-term fluctuations in crude oil. The prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone have fallen, and the cost side is affected by negative factors, resulting in a decline in the price of adipic acid. It is expected that the short-term market price of adipic acid will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.
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