According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 29th to August 2nd (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2500 yuan/ton to 2515 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.60% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market has undergone a narrow consolidation. Due to weak demand, there is currently no significant positive news to boost the market. The overall delivery volume in the mainland market is average, and coupled with the impact of weather factors on transportation, inventory has accumulated in the mainland. However, companies do not have any pressure to ship, and the market performance is stagnant.
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As of the close on August 2nd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2495 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2516 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2487 yuan/ton. It closed at 2505 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 491828 lots, and the position was 626831 lots, with a daily increase of -23229.
As of 8.2, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:
Region/ Price
Shanxi region/ 2260-2270 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange
Liaoning region/ 2700 yuan/ton
Anhui region/ 2455 yuan/ton
Henan region/ Factory reference: 2320-2325 yuan/ton, factory withdrawal in foreign exchange
In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply remains stable, while domestic imports have increased. The increase in domestic demand is insufficient to support coal prices at a high level; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenishing inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: reduced demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: The load of the North China unit is still unstable, and the demand for chloride has decreased; Downstream acetic acid: Decreased demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 1st, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was between $345-346 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 101-102 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 323-324 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall
Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345-346 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton
Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 101-102 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon
Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 323-324 euros/ton/ -2 euros per ton
Market forecast: Early maintenance equipment will gradually resume, and supply may increase significantly; In terms of demand, downstream consumption lacks momentum, making it difficult to break the deadlock. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly focus on consolidation.
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