Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently stopped falling and stabilized, with spot prices of various brands showing large stability and small fluctuations. As of July 23rd, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to July 1st.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been strengthening recently. The industry load has dropped below 64%, the supply of goods has shrunk, and there is a favorable situation on the supply side. Upstream phenol and acetone have fluctuated, and the support for bisphenol A on the raw material side has limited changes. Downstream stocking is urgently needed for procurement, and the flow of goods has improved. Overall, bisphenol A has increased its support for PC costs.
In terms of supply: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained stable with small fluctuations, and the industry average operating rate has decreased by 3% to below 76% compared to mid July. There is not much news about future maintenance and resumption of work. The on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the news of Hengli Petrochemical’s PC sales in the early stage has affected the mentality of industry players. However, spot prices have fallen to the lowest point of the year, and producers have increased their efforts to raise prices and build a bottom, resulting in a stable and moderate increase in ex factory pricing. The overall market supply side provides stable support for PC prices.
In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has taken on a relatively weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for essential needs. Downstream enterprises have low loads, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a narrow decline in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the PC market has stopped falling and stabilized. The upstream bisphenol A market has rebounded, and PC cost support has strengthened. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced narrowly, and the changes in supply side factors are limited. The off-season market for demand side consumption is strong, and trading in the market is poor. At present, PC prices have reached their lowest point of the year, and the atmosphere of bottoming out in the market has increased. It is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.
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