According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in June 2024, the domestic lead ingot market fluctuated and rose. The average price in the domestic market was 18675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 19205 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.84%.
On June 30, the lead commodity index was 116.88, a decrease of 12.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 56.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).
On June 30th, the base metal index was 1333 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 107.63% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. In 2024, the price of lead ingots mostly increased, with only a 1.77% drop in February and an increase of over 2.8% in other months. Judging from the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.
Macroscopically, the ISM service industry in the United States unexpectedly fell significantly short of expectations in June, with the fastest contraction rate in four years. The June ISM service industry PMI in the United States was 48.8, significantly lower than the expected 52.6, and May was 53.8. Business activities have sharply declined, new orders have also significantly declined, the price index is at its lowest in three months, and the employment index has shrunk for the fifth consecutive month. After the data was released, US bond yields significantly declined, gold rose, and the US dollar fell.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in June was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a stable outlook for the manufacturing industry. The non manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, and the non manufacturing industry continues to expand. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point.
The overall lead ingot market fluctuated and rose in June. Starting from May to June, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season of the industry, with a clear downward trend in enterprise operating rates and a weak trend in terminal demand. Fundamentally speaking, the supply of lead concentrate continues to be tight. Currently, some refineries in Jiangxi have stopped production due to certificate renewal reasons, while some in Jiangsu have stopped production for about a week for equipment maintenance. Next week, some refineries in Anhui plan to stop production for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of primary lead. In terms of recycled lead, in the face of a shortage of waste battery supply, multiple recycled lead refineries experienced production cuts and shutdowns again in June due to insufficient raw materials, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. From a cost perspective, the current tight supply pattern of lead concentrate and waste batteries continues, making it difficult to reduce costs and providing strong support for lead prices. From the demand side, currently in the off-season of downstream demand, on-demand procurement is the main focus, and there is little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the lead ingot market will remain stable with a strong trend in the short term.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales of automobiles in May 2024 were 2.372 million and 2.417 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and 1.5%. From January to May 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 11.384 million and 11.496 million respectively, an increase of 6.5% and 8.3% year-on-year.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in May 2024 was 687000 tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. From January to May 2024, China’s lead production was 3.252 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%
According to the International Lead and Zinc Research Group ILZSG, the global lead market experienced a shortage of 22600 tons in April 2024 and 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, the global lead market had an oversupply of 7000 tons, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.
According to data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in April 2024, there was a global surplus of 184000 tons of zinc sheet supply and 48400 tons of refined lead supply worldwide. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 193600 tons of zinc sheets and 141900 tons of refined lead worldwide.
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