The weak and downward trend in the price of soda ash in June

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2170 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2090 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.69% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has been weak this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market inventory is sufficient, and the production and sales of enterprises are weak; On the demand side, the terminal market is weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. There is a lack of on-demand follow-up, and market trading is limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weak and has been lowered. As of June 30, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China remain stable and watchful, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass rose first and then fell this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.86 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 19.05 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 4.08%. The spot prices in the glass market are mainly weak, with downstream rigid demand for procurement, weak market demand, and a weak downward trend in price trends.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 26th week of 2024 (6.24-6.28), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0 in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling are PVC (-1.59%) and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.26%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and the supply side is still at a relatively high level. Downstream procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The reduction in soda ash inventory is limited, and it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.