According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week (June 17-21). As of June 21, the average PTA market price in East China was 5976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the week.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Starting from late June, there are plans to restart multiple sets of PTA devices, and the market’s expectation of abundant PTA supply continues to increase. There is a possibility of further reduction in downstream polyester production, which strengthens the pressure of PTA oversupply and concerns about PTA demand. With the weakening of supply and demand, the PTA market fell at the beginning of the week. However, during the traditional peak demand season, coupled with OPEC+nurturing oil prices, and the ongoing tension in the Middle East, crude oil continues to rebound, and costs still provide strong support for PTA. In addition, with the significant increase in polyester sales and slight adjustments in production, the demand for PTA is relatively stable, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.
Looking ahead to the future, PTA will restart its production capacity at the end of the month, with plans to restart over 7 million tons of maintenance equipment next week, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 88%, and with the gradual restart of the equipment, the operating rate will further increase.
EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.55 million barrels last week, and finished oil products were also presented to the Kugge Bureau. Combined with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices continue to strengthen. As of June 20th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $81.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.71 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile.
The demand for downstream polyester products has rebounded in stages, with industry production slightly rising to over 88%. The terminal textile market is sluggish, with some weaving and texturing factories planning to shut down for vacation after consuming raw materials. It is expected that downstream weaving and texturing factories will start operating or decline next week. At the end of the month, as the downstream replenishment cycle approaches, some downstream factories may stock up appropriately next week.
Business Society analysts believe that the restart of PTA devices may continue to increase production, limiting the increase in PTA prices. We still need to pay attention to the implementation of downstream polyester factories reducing production and changes in crude oil prices.
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