Analysis of the Acetic Acid Industry Chain
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From the May price rise and fall list of the acetic acid industry by Shengyi Society, it can be seen that acetic acid and downstream products are generally weak and consolidating. The rise in raw material methanol prices has increased the cost pressure on acetic acid, but due to poor demand, the acetic acid market has declined, with a 3.08% decrease within the month. The main downstream products, acetic anhydride, have experienced a significant decline, while the market for ethyl and butyl esters has narrowed.
Acetic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell in May, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. As of May 31, the price was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton, and an overall decline of 3.08%. After the holiday, the price of acetic acid tends to rise strongly, leading to an increase in downstream demand for on-demand replenishment. The trading atmosphere on the market is improving, and coupled with the Tianjin Alkali Plant’s equipment failure and load reduction, enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices, resulting in a continuous increase in market trading; In late May, there was gradually resistance from downstream towards high priced sources of goods, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. At the same time, as the acetic acid plant resumed its initial load, manufacturers’ willingness to ship increased, and the focus of acetic acid trading continued to shift downwards; At the end of the month, some facilities in East China were shut down, and the company’s quotation slightly increased.
Acetic anhydride: The downstream acetic anhydride market rose first and then fell in May. On May 31st, the quotation was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5625.00 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the upstream price of acetic acid increased slightly, and the cost support for acetic anhydride was positive. The demand for acetic anhydride remained stable, and the price of acetic anhydride rose accordingly; In the mid to late period, the price of acetic anhydride weakened and declined, with upstream acetic acid falling and cost support weakened. The acetic anhydride market was clearly bearish, and the price trend declined.
Ethyl acetate: In May, the market situation of ethyl acetate was sorted out and operated, with price trends rising first and then falling. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the price of 6260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, the market price of ethyl acetate increased significantly, with the main upstream acetic acid market rising and raw material support being positive. The price of ethyl acetate was slightly stronger and increased; In the middle and late stages, as the upstream market weakened and cost support was insufficient, the upstream market transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced ethyl acetate was generally low, and entry into the market for purchasing was limited. Under the game of supply and demand, the price of ethyl acetate decreased.
Butyl acetate: The domestic market for butyl acetate remained stable in May. There is currently no plan for equipment maintenance or production reduction in the butyl acetate unit. The market supply is stable within the month, and the quotations from butyl acetate enterprises are mostly stable in operation. In terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, resulting in weak support for butyl ester; The strong rise in the price of n-butanol has a positive impact on butyl acetate, leading to differentiated cost operations. The mentality of butyl acetate manufacturers is indecisive, and market trading prices fluctuate narrowly.
Future prospects of the acetic acid industry chain
According to analysts from Business Society, the current operation of acetic acid enterprises is stable, with sufficient market supply and no pressure on inventory. The main focus is on strong quotations, and downstream production is low, which has limited support for acetic acid. In addition, the downstream market is mostly affected by fluctuations in acetic acid prices. It is expected that the acetic acid industry chain will remain stagnant and consolidate in June, with narrow price fluctuations. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situations.
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