With the downward adjustment of international crude oil prices and the lack of highlights in its own fundamentals, PTA prices have experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, the average market price in East China was 5918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous day.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In terms of supply, due to the decrease in PTA production in the early stage, some regions may experience supply tightening, with the industry operating rate around 74%. With the planned restart of the 1.25 million ton PTA plant in South China on May 24th, it is expected that the PTA production capacity operating rate will slightly increase, and overall, the supply of goods will still be abundant.
In the international crude oil market, due to the possible postponement of interest rate cuts and unexpected increase in US oil inventories as shown in Federal Reserve minutes, crude oil prices have been adjusted downwards for multiple trading days. As of May 22, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $77.57 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.90 per barrel, thus weakening support for PTA costs.
Downstream polyester production started at around 87%. The annual production of 125000 tons of polyester plant is planned to restart next Monday, with no major changes for the time being. Large polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have a strong intention to support the market. The domestic demand for terminal textiles is gradually weakening. In April, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and needle textiles in domestic consumer goods retail reached 104.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. However, demand continued to weaken after entering May.
Business Society analysts believe that the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and other negative news have led to a continued decline in crude oil prices and weakened cost support, PTA fundamentals are difficult to boost, coupled with the off-season cycle, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will expand their production reduction. Overall, there is a lack of upward driving force, PTA prices may experience weak fluctuations.
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