Aluminum prices are rising
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Aluminum prices have risen this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on May 17, 2024 was 20733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86% compared to the average market price of 20556.67 yuan/ton on May 10 last Friday.
Rising prices of raw alumina
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, and on May 10th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3616 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% compared to last week.
The rapid increase in alumina prices has provided strong cost support for aluminum ingot prices.
Expected conversion of terminal demand for the new real estate policy
Real estate benefits: 5 consecutive new policies:
1. The central bank plans to establish a re loan for affordable housing with a scale of 300 billion yuan, which can be extended four times
The People’s Bank of China announced on May 17th that it plans to establish re loans for affordable housing. The scale of the re loan is 300 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended four times. The distribution targets include 21 national banks, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank, and joint-stock commercial banks. Banks, in accordance with the principles of independent decision-making and risk-taking, issue loans to local state-owned enterprises selected by urban governments to purchase completed but unsold commercial housing for use as affordable housing. The People’s Bank of China will issue re loans based on 60% of the loan principal, which can drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan.
2. Two departments: The down payment for the first house loan shall not be less than 15%, and the down payment for the second house loan shall not be less than 25%
The People’s Bank of China and the State Administration for Financial Supervision and Administration: For residential households who purchase commercial housing with loans, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first housing is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second housing is adjusted to not less than 25%. On this basis, the provincial branches of the People’s Bank of China and the dispatched agencies of the State Administration for Financial Supervision and Administration independently determine the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for first and second homes in each city under their jurisdiction in accordance with the requirements of urban government regulation and the principle of implementing policies based on the city.
3. Central Bank: Cancel the lower limit of interest rates for first and second home commercial loans
The central bank has issued a notice on adjusting the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans. 1、 Cancel the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rates for first and second homes at the national level. 2、 The provincial branches of the People’s Bank of China, in accordance with the principle of implementing policies based on the city, guide the pricing and self-discipline mechanism of market interest rates at each provincial level. Based on the real estate market situation in each city within their jurisdiction and local government regulatory requirements, they independently determine whether to set the lower limit and lower limit level (if any) of commercial personal housing loan interest rates in each city within their jurisdiction. 3、 Banking and financial institutions should reasonably determine the specific interest rate level for each loan based on the lower limit of interest rates determined by the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing at each provincial level (if any), combined with factors such as the operating conditions of the institution and customer risk conditions. If there is any inconsistency between the previous relevant regulations and this notice, this notice shall prevail.
4. Central Bank: Lowering Provident Fund Loan Interest Rate by 0.25 percentage points
Central Bank: Starting from May 18, 2024, the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points. The interest rates for personal housing provident fund loans for first homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85%, respectively. The interest rates for personal housing provident fund loans for second homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325%, respectively.
5. The government may, at its discretion, purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price
The national video conference on effectively ensuring the delivery of housing was held in Beijing on the 17th. The attendees pointed out that real estate is related to the vital interests of the people and the overall economic and social development. At present, efforts should be made to classify and promote the disposal of unsold but difficult to deliver commercial housing projects under construction, fully support the financing and completion delivery of projects that should be continued, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers. Local governments should take practical measures and appropriately dispose of idle residential land that has been sold through methods such as recovery and acquisition, in order to help financially disadvantaged real estate enterprises overcome difficulties. In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may need to place an order and purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as affordable housing. We must continue to do a good job in preventing and disposing of debt risks in real estate enterprises, and solidly promote the construction of affordable housing, urban village renovation, and the construction of public infrastructure for both emergency and emergency use.
Macro sentiment drives non-ferrous metals to stop falling and rebound
The non farm payroll data in the United States in April fell short of expectations, while other economic data showed a weakening of inflation expectations in the United States, and the Federal Reserve’s biased stance led the market to regain expectations of interest rate cuts. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.
The probability of aluminum price fluctuations in the future increases
At present, there is not much explicit inventory of aluminum ingots in China, and the post holiday inventory situation is better than market expectations. There is expected to be an increase in supply, but due to the relatively high domestic aluminum prices, the import window is closed, and the surge in LME inventory has little impact on the domestic market. The inventory of aluminum ingots and rods in mainstream consumer areas has been slightly depleted, with good consumption expectations. In the short term, a relative balance between supply and demand has been formed, and it is expected that the probability of future market fluctuations will increase.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |