Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Recently, the domestic POM market has been operating sideways, with spot prices relatively firm. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 13th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level on May 1st.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a narrow upward trend. In recent times, there has been little contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. The inventory of mainland sample enterprises is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on their shipments. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, resulting in a relatively high market atmosphere. The overall market is mainly strong. Downstream MTBE: After Yuhuang starts construction, it will affect next week’s production, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: After the shutdown and maintenance of mainstream factories in Shandong, the equipment returned to normal, and the demand for chloride increased; In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating, and overall support for POM is still acceptable.
In terms of supply:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been adjusted and operated, with an overall load of around 77%, with a narrow decline. There is a maintenance plan for Shenhua Ningmei in the later stage, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. After a week of digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, with the increase in imported material prices, manufacturers have strong confidence and pricing is generally firm. Overall, the pressure on the supply side is not significant.
In terms of demand:
The stocking situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises is average, and most of them just need to pick up goods to maintain production. The main logic for terminal factories to obtain goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods within the site is relatively slow. The release of post holiday stocking is not obvious, and the consumption level is still following the previous weak trend. The mentality of traders is average. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
The recent trend of the POM market has been strong. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has been adjusted narrowly, and there are still maintenance enterprises in the future, which has eased the pressure on the supply side. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with POM long and short facing each other. It is expected that the future market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
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