Small fluctuations in the plasticizer sector after the holiday
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector reached 786 points on May 10th, an increase of 1 point from yesterday and 3 points from the plasticizer sector index of 783 points on May 1st, an increase of 0.38%; The plasticizer sector index increased by 5 points, or 0.64%, compared to 781 points on April 21. Starting from late April, the index of the plasticizer sector has slightly increased, but overall, the fluctuation of the plasticizer sector index is relatively small, and the fluctuation range has significantly narrowed. After the holiday, the index of the plasticizer sector has risen or fallen within 0.5%.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average weekly increase and decrease in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10) was 0.07%. In the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 3 products that went up, 4 products that went down, and 2 products that went up or down to 0 on the plasticizer price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (1.37%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (0.42%), and DBP (0.40%); The main commodities falling include PTA (-0.55%), DOP (-0.51%), and isooctanol (-0.41%). This week, the plasticizer sector saw a slight increase or decrease in product prices, with major products experiencing fluctuations within 1%.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the main plasticizer sector products showed a slight increase in May, while downstream product prices slightly rebounded. The prices of plasticizer raw materials octanol and n-butanol increased, and the main plasticizer products showed varying degrees of increase. The plasticizer sector saw a slight overall increase in May.
Main plasticizer products saw a slight increase in May
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the main plasticizer products saw a slight increase in May. As of May 11th, DOP prices have slightly increased by 1.02%, DOTP prices have slightly increased by 1.26%, and DBP prices have slightly increased by 0.94%. During the May Day holiday, some production facilities of plasticizer enterprises were shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased to 60%, slightly lower than before the holiday. After the holiday, with the completion of maintenance, it is expected that the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises will gradually recover to around 66%, and the supply will gradually increase. Cost support has led to an increase in plasticizer product prices, but with an increase in plasticizer supply, there is insufficient support for the overall increase in plasticizer prices.
The price of isooctanol slightly increased in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the price of isooctanol was 9750 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.93% compared to the price of isooctanol on May 1st, which was 9660 yuan/ton. The price fluctuations of octanol products have narrowed. In May, the maintenance equipment of octanol enterprises resumed, and the operating rate of octanol increased to 98%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the operating rate in April. In early May, the supply of octanol increased, and downstream purchases were made as needed. In mid to late May, some manufacturers plan to shut down their octanol units for maintenance. In mid to late May, the domestic octanol supply is expected to decrease, and the production of plasticizer devices is basically stable and maintains a relatively high level. The octanol market lacks continuous upward momentum.
The price of n-butanol slightly increased in May
According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 11th, the quotation for n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.85% compared to the price of 7833.33 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, the n-butanol market in Shandong region showed a slight increase and remained stable. During the holiday period, the supply and demand of n-butanol were weak, and the overall market was operating quietly. After the holiday, some downstream small areas needed replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market slightly increased. In the future, it is expected that the n-butanol market will remain stable and consolidate overall.
Expected decrease in downstream demand
The domestic PVC social inventory was 598700 tons, an increase of 0.37% month on month and 22.07% year-on-year. PVC production enterprises maintain high inventory levels, which are affected by high operating loads and slow inventory removal; In the pattern of high supply and weak demand, the difficulty of destocking in the market and society has increased, and the risk of subsequent accumulation remains. The global PVC prices have fallen in May, leading to weak demand in the export market. The maintenance intensity of the domestic PVC market decreased month on month in May, with sufficient supply in the PVC market, stable downstream terminal demand as the main factor, weak external exports, and soft supply and demand in the PVC market, resulting in low consolidation of PVC prices.
Future expectations
Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the plasticizer market experienced slight fluctuations in May, with prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol rising slightly. Downstream enterprises maintained high production levels, and plasticizer demand support still exists. However, downstream demand expectations are expected to decrease in the future, and plasticizer demand remains weak. In the future, the prices of raw materials have become strong and stable, with insufficient cost support; Downstream demand expectations are expected to decrease, while plasticizers are supported by rising prices, leading to weak consolidation in the plasticizer sector in the future.
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