According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market saw an increase in early April, with prices of various wire drawing brands gradually increasing. As of April 10th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7828.57 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.83% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the international crude oil market is still fluctuating and rising due to the previous geopolitical tension, which has a strong support effect on the cost side of oil to PP production. However, in the medium term, demand is relatively weak and there is a risk of price retracement. Due to the rapid decline in propylene prices in the early stages, the market in early April continued its consolidation after the previous rebound, providing relatively stable support for propylene to PP production. The price fluctuations of methanol and propane are equally narrow, which generally supports PP horizontally. The cost support for PP is concentrated in crude oil.
Overall, the raw material supply is still acceptable, and there is still support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, there has been a narrow decline, with an average load of around 72% in recent days. At the same time, production line maintenance has been relatively concentrated recently, and companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo have maintenance plans, but the market supply has not reached the expected level. The inventory position of production enterprises has decreased, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is generally stable and small, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having comprehensive operating rates of about 43%, 65%, and 57%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is maintained. The market for wire drawing materials is mostly focused on the cost side, with prices fluctuating and rising.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 10th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.82% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 1.13% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a low increase in load, with an average operating rate of over 29%. The non-woven fabric market has seen a narrow recovery in trading, but the circulation of goods is still mainly based on contract delivery. The pattern of high overall inventory of fiber materials in the early stage continues, while the digestion speed of end products is average. It is expected that the fiber material market may continue the current consolidation trend.
In terms of melt blown materials, the market for melt blown PP has been stable and rising recently. As of April 10th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8025 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.59%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. Melt blown materials are more inclined to link with the cost side market, and it is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to maintain stability and consolidate the market.
Future Market Forecast
PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and rose in early April. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is stable, moderate to strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The supply of goods has been tightened, and the supply pressure has been partially alleviated. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is necessary to maintain production. The on-site momentum is average. It is expected that the PP market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.
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