The prices of plasticizers in the sector have dropped significantly
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 7th, the plasticizer sector has experienced a significant decline, with the main plasticizer sector products experiencing varying degrees of decline. The prices of isooctanol, DOP, and DOTP have fallen by nearly 20%, while the prices of n-butanol have fallen by 9.58%. DOP prices fell by 19.86%; DOTP prices fell by 19.21%; The price of isooctanol decreased by 26.80%; DBP prices fell by 5.13%. The plasticizer sector experienced a slight decline from January to February, while the plasticizer sector experienced a significant decline in March.
During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer manufacturers decreased significantly, dropping to around 50%. However, with the end of the holiday, the production of plasticizer manufacturers quickly recovered to around 70%. In March, the production of plasticizer enterprises reached a high level, and the supply of plasticizers was sufficient; Domestic PVC manufacturers are operating at a high level, PVC market inventory is high, and PVC is expected to continue to enter the market. The demand for plasticizers in the PVC market is not well supported, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. Adequate supply and poor demand have led to a significant decrease in plasticizer profits.
The price of isooctanol dropped significantly in the first quarter
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to March 31st, when the price of isooctanol was 9825 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.51%; Compared to January 1st, the price of isooctanol at 12950 yuan/ton has dropped significantly, with a decrease of 26.80%. 1. In February, there was a slight fluctuation and decline, while in March, the price of isooctanol dropped significantly. In March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of isooctanol increased. Imported isooctanol gradually arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the inventory of octanol at ports and increasing the pressure on isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the export of isooctanol has rebounded, but overall it is still at a low level, with limited positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the isooctanol market may remain weak. With the slow decline of inventory in the isooctanol market, the isooctanol market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.
The price of n-butanol fluctuated significantly and fell in the first quarter
According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of n-butanol was 7766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89% from the price of n-butanol on March 31st, which was 7916.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the price of n-butanol decreased significantly by 10.73% at 8700 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, domestic n-butanol opened high and closed low, with weak and volatile prices from January to February, and a significant drop in n-butanol prices in March. During the Spring Festival, the overall downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. As downstream production of n-butanol gradually returns, downstream stocking is more advanced, and demand for n-butanol has rebounded. At the same time, the high level of n-butanol production has remained stable after the holiday, and n-butanol inventory has remained high. In addition, the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February has exacerbated the oversupply of the n-butanol market. The manufacturers of n-butanol have a strong willingness to sell at a profit margin, and the price of n-butanol has been falling all the way. It is expected that the price of n-butanol will be weak in the future.
Polyethylene plant enters maintenance season
In 2024, the maintenance of polyethylene plants increased, with a total loss of 970000 tons in the first quarter, an increase of nearly 40% year-on-year. Entering the second quarter, the annual spring inspection has kicked off, and the polyethylene plant has entered a period of concentrated maintenance. In addition to the continued shutdown of enterprises undergoing maintenance in the first quarter, there has been an increase in new maintenance in April, and the loss of maintenance in April has significantly increased. It is expected to be around 420000 tons, an increase of 33% compared to March.
Downstream demand falls short of expectations
On March 26, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India (MOC) notified the initiation of anti-dumping investigations against PVC imports originating in China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Thailand and the United States. The investigation period is from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. India is the world’s largest importer of PVC, and the impact of this anti-dumping incident on imports in the Indian market is relatively limited, with the main impact expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year. In terms of inventory, domestic PVC social inventory is high, PVC downstream production is low, order continuity is not strong, PVC manufacturers have a lot of inventory waiting to be stored, and PVC inventory continues to maintain high levels. In terms of operating rate, PVC manufacturers had a high operating rate in the first quarter, and spring maintenance was gradually launched in April, leading to an increase in enterprise maintenance. In terms of demand, many market participants have optimistic expectations for the post holiday “Golden Three” market. However, the current “Golden Three” has passed. According to feedback from downstream enterprises, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish this year, with less than expected orders and limited support from the raw material end. The supply-demand contradiction continues to play a game, and the quality of the “Golden Three” peak season is slightly insufficient. In the future, with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival inspection and repair season, PVC manufacturers have started to decline, while infrastructure resumption has increased. The plastic industry market has rebounded in April, but the overall growth in demand for plasticizers is limited. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future.
Future expectations
Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in the first quarter, raw material prices plummeted, demand fell below expectations, plasticizer prices plummeted, and the plasticizer sector experienced a sharp decline. In the future, in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol are weak and volatile, while the prices of phthalic anhydride are stabilizing. The prices of n-butanol are fluctuating and falling, and the cost of plasticizers is slowing down; On the supply side, the expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers has decreased, the supply of plasticizers has decreased, and the support for the rise of plasticizers has increased; In terms of demand, plastic industry manufacturers have entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, and downstream manufacturers have increased their expectations for maintenance, exacerbating the weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, the decline in plasticizer costs has slowed down, and both supply and demand expectations have decreased. However, plasticizer manufacturers have been slow to destock, and the situation of plasticizer oversupply is difficult to improve. Downstream customers have a strong resistance to high priced plasticizers, and it is expected that high priced plasticizer prices will fluctuate slightly in the future, while low-priced plasticizer prices will remain weak and stable.
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