According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3966 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4066 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46%.
From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from January to March 2024, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a V-shaped trend of first falling and then rebounding. The market price began to decline from early January until the end of February. Starting from March, the dimethyl carbonate market welcomed some positive news, and the market began to rebound. With the gradual release of demand, the overall market finally continued to recover.
Market analysis of dimethyl carbonate
Negative pressure on January’s weak decline in dimethyl carbonate
In January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak and declining trend. The trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is light. After the increase in operating load of dimethyl carbonate in Zhejiang region, the overall supply on site has increased. However, the downstream demand has generally boosted, and the downstream market mainly maintains rigid demand orders. Spot purchases are cautious, and the market is mostly empty. Under the pressure of bearish sentiment, the focus of the dimethyl carbonate market continues to decline, with a 4.10% decline in January.
The supply-demand game does not decrease. In February, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline deeply
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In February, the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic market was sufficient. During the Spring Festival holiday, many factories of dimethyl carbonate maintained normal or slightly reduced operations, while the overall operation of dimethyl carbonate remained unchanged, with an operating rate of around 4 floors. After the end of the holiday, there is a certain accumulation of inventory in the dimethyl carbonate market, and the overall inventory level of factories has increased. After the holiday, the dimethyl carbonate factories mainly discharge inventory, but the recovery of the demand side needs to be gradually released. Therefore, the game between supply and demand in the dimethyl carbonate market did not decrease in February, and the market situation continued to decline deeply. In February, dimethyl carbonate decreased by 1.71%.
The demand side supports the recovery of the dimethyl carbonate market in March
With the arrival of “Golden Three Silver Four”, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market finally saw a recovery in March. The overall demand for downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate, including electrolyte and solvent directions, has improved to some extent. The scheduling and shipment rhythm of the dimethyl carbonate factory is still good, and the overall supply pressure of the factory has been relieved. The overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate has been improved, coupled with some factories undergoing shutdown and maintenance. The buying sentiment in the dimethyl carbonate market is still positive, and the overall focus of market negotiations is gradually moving upwards. In March, dimethyl carbonate increased by 3.48%.
In terms of demand: Currently, there are many downstream industries of dimethyl carbonate in China. From the perspective of the downstream consumption structure of the industry, products with a large consumption of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate include electrolyte solvents, polycarbonate, coatings, adhesives, developer, etc. Currently, electrolyte solvents are the main downstream of dimethyl carbonate, accounting for 40%. Next is polycarbonate, accounting for 27%, while coatings, adhesives, and developers account for 8% and 4%, respectively. Other industries account for 5.9%.
1、 In February, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was mainly reflected in the electrolyte and traditional industries such as coatings and adhesives. The overall demand for the electrolyte industry recovered less than expected, and the demand for coatings was also in the off-season of the industry.
In March, the demand for electrolytes and traditional solvent coatings has improved, and polycarbonate factories are also operating normally at basic load. The capacity utilization rate is still acceptable, and the demand for industrial grade DMC in traditional industries is expected to increase slightly. Overall, the demand is expected to improve.
In terms of supply, there was not much adjustment in the domestic production capacity of dimethyl carbonate in January. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday in February, there was no significant shutdown plan for the dimethyl carbonate market as a whole, and the market maintained a stable operating rate in the early stage. 1、 In February, the dimethyl carbonate factory mainly focused on shipping, and there was some supply pressure in the market.
In March, with the continuous release of demand, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was reduced, and the market supply and demand pattern gradually changed.
In terms of production capacity: In 2023, the overall production capacity of the dimethyl carbonate market has significantly increased. In 2023, the production capacity of dimethyl carbonate was about 2.5 million tons, but the production accounted for only half of the production capacity, about 1.23 million tons. The imbalance in the supply and demand pattern of dimethyl carbonate has begun to emerge. In 2024, there is still a significant demand gap in the overall dimethyl carbonate market, and overcapacity still exists. Therefore, the transmission and coordination of supply and demand still dominate.
Future analysis
At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is mild. With the arrival of spring, the downstream traditional coating industry of dimethyl carbonate will also usher in a peak season.
From the perspective of downstream electrolyte and solvent industries, with the support of policies in the new energy industry, there is still a trend of increasing production capacity in the future. In the long run, the increase in demand for electrolyte is also transmitted to diethyl carbonate, and there is a certain increase. Although the overall market is currently showing an overcapacity pattern, in terms of future demand for dimethyl carbonate, the direction of electrolyte development is still the main direction.
The data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly operate steadily and positively. In the long run, the gap on the demand side cannot be ignored, and there are still huge challenges in the future market.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |