Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 15, 2024 was 19190 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.16%.
Macro positive aluminum price resonance
The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is strong, and the non-ferrous sector continues to strengthen. As an international product with strong financial attributes, aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March.
Fundamentals of supply and demand: Strong supply-demand relationship
At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, and the actual production is relatively large. Although the social inventory is lower than expected, it is mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited.
On the consumer side, downstream work continues to resume, and orders for other sectors except for building profiles are still available. Downstream aluminum rod production continues to rise, while the recovery speed of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates is slightly weak. The domestic meeting in March continues to release positive consumer sentiment.
Future Market Forecast
The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.
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