441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends
This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 slightly declined. As of January 19th, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 15390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week. With the increase of silicon metal production reduction, silicon factories have started to resume production and supply has resumed. At the same time, as the holiday approaches, downstream short-term essential procurement has been basically completed, and the market spot sentiment has cooled down. As a result, market transactions have weakened, leading to a weakening of spot prices.
The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 19th is as follows:
The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100~16200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16150 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
In terms of supply:
As of January 19th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased.
In terms of inventory:
As of January 19th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached 351000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 114000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 237000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week.
In terms of demand:
This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to stabilize, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 52000 to 58000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal reasons, downstream installed demand has decreased, and the recent increase in demand in the silicon material market has been insufficient. We need to continue to follow up, but the current price decline space is gradually narrowing, and it may stabilize in the later stage, but we have not seen any signs of rebound.
The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13940 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20150 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is stable, with aluminum alloy factories making small-scale purchases and placing appropriate inquiries for replenishment, resulting in an overall increase in demand.
Future Market Forecast
In summary, on the supply side, with some silicon factories resuming production, the spot sentiment in the market has cooled down. In addition, the disturbance in the north has not been eliminated due to the approaching holiday, and the cost pressure in the southwest region is low. The overall operating rate is still at a low level; On the demand side, downstream replenishment is basically coming to an end, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Market transactions have weakened, and demand release is weak, but resilience still exists. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been alleviated. At present, cost support is temporarily in place, and it is expected that industrial silicon will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner next week. We will continue to monitor supply side disturbances and downstream replenishment progress before the Spring Festival.
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