This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and stabilized

This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and stabilized

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 19th, the price of cobalt was 214700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 0.85% compared to December 11th at 212900 yuan/ton. The growth rate of the new energy vehicle market has slowed down, but the proportion of installed ternary batteries has rebounded. The shipment volume of mobile phones continues to decrease, and the demand for cobalt in the market is slowly growing. This week, cobalt prices have bottomed out and stabilized.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has rebounded

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries slightly rebounded, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The shipment volume of mobile phones has increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market has rebounded.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales growth of new energy vehicles in winter has slowed down, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has increased; In October, the shipment volume of mobile phones increased significantly year-on-year, but after the Double Eleven and Double Twelve promotions, it once again entered a sluggish state. Consumers had planned to take advantage of the price reduction during the promotion to exchange phones, but major mobile phone manufacturers did not lower prices. The decrease in demand for phone replacements affected sales, and the shipment volume of mobile phones continued to decline, resulting in lower than expected demand in the cobalt market. Overall, the supply and demand balance in the cobalt market is relatively stable, and there is still downward pressure on cobalt prices in the future. The downward space for cobalt prices is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.