1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 152500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02% compared to the previous trading day. The overnight market’s Lunni range fluctuated, closing at $18575/ton, down $5 or 0.03%, while the Shanghai Nickel 11 contract fell 1570 yuan/ton to $150730 yuan/ton or 1.03%.
From a macro perspective, the Fed’s stance is biased towards doves, leading to a decline in the prices of the US dollar and US bonds. This change will affect metal prices, including nickel prices. The continuous loose supply of pure nickel and weak terminal demand for secondary nickel have to some extent offset the positive impact of the US dollar’s decline, leading to a decline in nickel prices. In terms of supply, due to the continuous loose supply of pure nickel, market inventory continues to accumulate. This gradually returns the price of pure nickel to its cost pricing logic, which is determined based on production costs and market supply and demand. On the other hand, due to the cost inversion of the route for converting nickel iron to electrowinning nickel, the profit from converting nickel sulfate to nickel production has significantly narrowed, which to some extent supports the nickel price.
Overall, the trend of nickel prices is influenced by both macro factors and supply and demand patterns. Despite policy incentives and factors such as tight nickel mines in Indonesia, the long-term downward trend in nickel prices is still difficult to reverse due to issues such as sustained loose supply of pure nickel, weak terminal demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely.
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