Price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In September, the domestic PA6 market saw an increase, with various spot prices fluctuating and rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of September 30th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14825 yuan/ton, a decrease of+5.14% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam rose first and then fell in September. In the first half of the month, the raw material pure benzene market strengthened, and cost support was favorable. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam is tight, and the focus of transactions is on the rise. In the latter half of the year, pure benzene turned around and went down, combined with a decrease in downstream demand, resulting in a decline in caprolactam. Overall, the cost side support for PA6 is acceptable within the month.
On the supply side:
Since September, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been generally sideways, with an average operating rate of around 75% in China. The market supply is flat compared to the end of August, and due to the impact of inventory digestion in the first half of the month, the warehousing pressure on domestic enterprises is not significant yet. However, in the latter half of the year, the supply of goods on site has increased, and the support of suppliers for spot goods has weakened.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries fluctuated slightly in September and remained stable, with an average load position of around 65% and 80%, respectively. In the first half of the month, the stock demand was fulfilled, and then the buyer’s acceptance of the increased price decreased, which affected the circulation speed of some sources of goods. Towards the end of the month, downstream enterprises have basically completed their purchases, and the actual trading level has gradually weakened. The market wait-and-see atmosphere has begun to dominate. Overall, the demand side support for PA6 slicing is first strong and then weak.
Future Market Forecast
After the market price of PA6 rose in September, it was sorted out. The price of caprolactam rose first and then fell, and the overall cost support for PA6 is still acceptable. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. After stocking up and cashing in before the end of the demand period, caution gradually increased, and holiday terminal enterprises and merchants gradually withdrew from the market, resulting in a decrease in market trading. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a narrow range consolidation market in early October.
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