According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 22, the average price in the Shandong market was 1994.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the price of 1989.00 yuan/ton on August 14.
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On August 22nd, the petroleum coke commodity index was 155.09, an increase of 2.92 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 62.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and an increase of 131.86% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)
The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining recently. On the macro level, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is putting pressure on the oil market. The supply and demand side has shown a stalemate in the game, and the tight supply situation continues. However, the North American driving season is gradually coming to an end, coupled with weak Chinese economic data, causing investors to worry about the future demand prospects.
Supply side: low inventory of petroleum coke in the refining coke warehouse at the port where a large amount of petroleum coke is shipped
The inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports continues to decline. Recently, there have been fewer imported petroleum coke arriving at ports. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and import traders have a strong willingness to ship. The speed of port shipment is relatively high, and the inventory of petroleum coke in ports is still mainly destocking. Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been good, with overall low inventory in refineries and good downstream demand, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke.
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On the demand side: terminal operating rate increases, demand increases
Recently, the spot price of metal silicon has continued to rise. As of August 18th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 350, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.75%, an increase of 5 units compared to the previous month. After the recent Universiade, production in Sichuan has gradually resumed, while overall production in Yunnan has remained stable, while the number of furnaces in Xinjiang has maintained an increase. The operating rate of metal silicon has slightly increased, providing slight support for the procurement of petroleum coke, with more demand being the main focus.
Recently, the overall market situation of calcined coke has remained stable. After the opening of aluminum factories in the southwest region, the demand for carbon for aluminum has improved, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, which is beneficial for the demand for petroleum coke; The enthusiasm for purchasing graphite electrodes and carburetors in the market is average.
Future prediction: Currently, the overall trading volume of Shandong’s refined petroleum coke is good, and the overall inventory of refined petroleum coke is at a low level, with good downstream demand. Recently, the overhaul of the refinery has ended, coupled with a large shipment of petroleum coke from the port, the market supply has increased, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly undergo minor fluctuations and consolidation.
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