According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market will be sorted out after the market price rises. From July 27th to August 3rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3854 yuan/ton to 3802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34%, a month on month increase of 1.06%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.05%. Affected by the decline in international crude oil, cost support has weakened, and the supply side has remained stable while increasing. At the same time, weather factors have affected an increase in precipitation in some regions of China, resulting in slightly flat demand.
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In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Wusu Mingyuan and Tianzhize resuming production, Shandong Haiyou resuming production, as well as Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical’s normal production, Ningbo Keyuan resuming production, and Yunnan Petrochemical’s intermittent production, which have driven an increase in the operating rate of devices in the region. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: As of August 2nd, international crude oil futures have slightly declined. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49 per barrel, a decrease of $1.88 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.71 or 2.0%. Fitch’s downgrade of the US credit rating has caused turmoil in the financial market, and risk aversion has led to a decline in the oil market.
On the demand side, the demand of asphalt market is relatively flat, and the demand varies from region to region. Rainfall weather may increase in some northern regions in the future, especially in Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places where there will be rainstorm or heavy rainstorm, accompanied by thunderstorms, gales, hail and other strong convection weather, which will affect the construction process of downstream terminals. However, the overall demand in the south has improved, and the phased demand may be strong in the south and weak in the north. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.
As of the close of August 3rd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3754 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3758 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3690 yuan/ton. It closed at 3754 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55% or 1.46% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 309091 lots, the holding volume was 228235 lots, and the daily increase was -21130 lots.
In the future, it is predicted that the international high crude oil level will weaken its support for asphalt, while the supply side will maintain stability and increase, with slight differences in demand among regions. Business Society asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.
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