Precious metals rose first and then fell in July
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
In July, the price of precious metal gold rose first and then fell, indicating an overall upward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 456.44/g on July 31, 2023, with a monthly drop of 1.75%; Compared with the peak price of this month (July 20), the gold Spot market price was 461.30 yuan/g, down 1.05%.
Silver fell back to the beginning of the month
According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average silver market price will be 5736.67 yuan/kg on July 31, 2023, up 5.60% month on month, down 3.17% from the peak of this month (July 20), which is 5924.33 yuan/kg.
Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil
In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.
Policy Fundamentals Data
In July, the overall decline of bulk commodities stabilized and rose. In addition to the unexpected decline of the US CPI in July, the market once again expected that the process of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase would come to an end, and the U.S. Dollar Index once fell below the 100 threshold; However, in the second quarter of the United States, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% month on month, and the tight economic growth and employment conditions pushed up the US dollar exchange rate and US bond interest rates, weakening the momentum of gold’s rebound.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the United States ended its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 26th and announced that it would raise the target range of the Federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 5.25% and 5.5%. This is the 11th rate hike by the Federal Reserve since entering the current rate hike cycle in March 2022, with a cumulative rate hike of 525 basis points. After the monetary policy meeting in June 2023, the Federal Reserve announced a pause in interest rate hikes. Interest rate hikes have suppressed interest free asset prices, which is also the main reason why precious metal prices have moved down from their high points before and after interest rate hikes.
Future Market Forecast
At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.
Silver rose significantly in July, and its price was overestimated by fundamentals, leading to profit taking in funds. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July and stated that there was no interest rate cut within the year, breaking previous optimistic expectations. In the short term, precious metals have been volatile and bearish after recent highs.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |