According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic PTA market, after a brief decline, has recently shown a slight upward trend. As of July 26, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from July 18.
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At present, there is still some support for costs. Saudi Arabia and Russia have further pushed for production cuts, supply tightening expectations remain unchanged, and US gasoline demand has rebounded, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise. As of July 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.63 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.25 per barrel. PX oscillates strongly with crude oil, and is in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic PX operating load is low, but the landing of new PTA production capacity on the demand side drives the release of new points. The contradiction between PX supply and demand has not yet been highlighted.
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From the recent changes in PTA’s own devices, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 80%. In addition, the 2.5 million ton new project of Hengli Petrochemical in Huizhou is gradually being mass-produced, and the supply side has increased.
In terms of downstream demand, polyester overall maintains a high starting point of over 90%. As raw materials rise, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and inventory pressure has increased, with short fiber inventory at a high level. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has slightly decreased to below 65%, and the high operating rate of weaving machines has dropped back. Therefore, the start of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline, with increasing pressure on polyester inventory and cash flow, a decrease in polyester load, and some negative feedback from the terminal.
Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the cost side is still positive, while crude oil and PX are still relatively strong. However, the pressure on PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging, with device restarts, more load increases, and the release of new production capacity, PTA supply will be further relaxed. In addition, during the off-season of terminal demand, downstream polyester cash flow and inventory pressure increase. Under the game of strong costs and weak supply and demand, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the future.
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