1、 Price data
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According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7601.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to May 22nd at 7539.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7600 yuan/ton.
As of May 28th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7289.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to May 22nd at 7239.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.
On May 28th, the naphtha commodity index was 93.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.87% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 122.11% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of refined naphtha has risen, with terminal restructuring and concentrated release of ethylene demand. Market trading has been positive and transactions have been good.
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The international crude oil market fluctuated this week, mainly due to the pending US debt problem. Recently, there is still pressure from the macro side in the oil market, but the supply and demand side is relatively good, and the US gasoline consumption is strong; Combined with the continued interruption of exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq and the positive support of tight supply from oil producing countries such as OEPC+, oil prices have been boosted.
According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased this week, reaching 7050.00 yuan/ton on May 22 and 7130.00 yuan/ton on May 28, an increase of 1.13%. The price of mixed xylene has slightly increased this week, reaching 7390 yuan/ton on May 22 and 7470 yuan/ton on May 28, an increase of 1.08%. The price trend of PX this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene is 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from Business Society believe that this week, the terminal restructuring of local refining naphtha and the concentrated release of ethylene demand have led to positive market trading and good transactions. Refineries are actively driving up prices, and it is expected that local refining naphtha may continue to rise in the near future.
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