Overview of ethylene glycol market
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According to data from Business News Agency, on May 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4258.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:
The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4200 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4300 yuan/ton.
List of International CIF Prices
On May 12th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 515 US dollars/ton,; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 528 US dollars/ton.
Starting to destock ethylene glycol port inventory
At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 11th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 940900 tons, and it began operating in the range of less than 1 million tons. Recently, the main reason for going to the warehouse is that the pace of port shipments has increased. In addition, the number of ports this week is relatively small, and it is expected that the landing month on month ratio will increase next week.
Expected growth in overseas supply in May, with off-season maintenance in China
Some maintenance devices in North America and Saudi Arabia have been restarted, and the overseas supply increment is clear. Some existing maintenance devices have plans to restart, so it is expected that ethylene glycol production may increase slightly in May. On the domestic side, some enterprises have started to carry out maintenance and cash in.
Downstream demand is weak
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Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas economic recession is strong, and terminal foreign trade is mainly dominated by small and medium-sized orders, and the export situation is not optimistic; On the other hand, May is about to usher in the textile off-season, and the current poor acceptance of new orders in the textile market may lead to a decrease in the weaving start-up rate. The negative feedback from the bottom up of terminal shutdown is heating up, and the polyester production reduction continues, which may weaken the demand for raw material ethylene glycol.
Weak upward momentum on the spot end
At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories are still in a low start state, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.
Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.
It is expected that in the short term, the probability of weak and volatile ethylene glycol trading in the future will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4250 yuan/ton.
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