According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyester staple fibers first rose and then fell in April, showing a slight overall increase. As of April 29th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, prices were boosted by crude oil, but as cost support weakened and demand was insufficient, they fluctuated and declined. At present, the short fiber industry is experiencing significant losses, forcing factories and equipment to enter a state of maintenance. As of the end of this month, the start of production in the short fiber industry has decreased to less than 70%.
| Bacillus thuringiensis |
In the crude oil market, at the beginning of April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suddenly announced a significant production reduction, which is estimated to exceed 1 million barrels per day. Affected by this news, international crude oil futures prices have strengthened. But with concerns about economic recession and market expectations of further interest rate hikes that may suppress fuel demand growth, prices have fluctuated and fallen. As of April 28th, WTI’s June crude oil futures were trading at $76.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for June were trading at $79.54 per barrel.
The PX new device has a load of 90% of Shenghong’s 4 million tons, a load of more than 80% of Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons, and a load of less than 30% of Daxie Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons. PX centralized maintenance has begun to materialize, and the operating rate of PX in Asia has rapidly decreased. However, at the end of the month, with the restart or load increase of multiple PX devices, the tight supply of PX in the early stage was slightly alleviated, and the domestic PX device load remained above 70%. The Asian centralized maintenance season is coming to an end, and the cost support for the PTA market from the PX maintenance season is also coming to an end.
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Affected by this, the domestic PTA4 market in January showed an “M” trend, showing an overall decline. As of April 29, the spot market price in East China was 6180 yuan/ton, down 3.51% from the beginning of the month. At the end of April, the domestic PTA device load remained around 80%. In May, restart and maintenance coexisted. The total production capacity of Yadong Petrochemical was 750000 tons/year, and the device was repaired at the end of March. It is planned to restart on May 1st. The total production capacity of Xinjiang Zhongtai PTA is 1.2 million tons/year, and the device is planned to be shut down in May, with a planned maintenance period of 2 months. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, the current PTA social inventory is maintained at around 2.7 million tons. In April, there was an increase in PTA supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory in the market.
Demand has continued to be weak. Since April, new orders for domestic and foreign terminal weaving have continued to decline, mainly for just in demand replenishment. Domestic demand orders have gradually come to an end, and foreign demand has still not improved. From January to March 2023, polyester yarn exports amounted to 108000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%. In March, polyester yarn exports amounted to 41000 shares, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The pressure on pure polyester yarn enterprises has gradually increased, and production reduction has been put on the agenda. There have been sporadic cuts in production in yarn factories, and there has not yet been a large-scale reduction in production.
Analysts from Business Society believe that as processing costs continue to compress and traditional textile off-season approaches, it is expected that polyester staple fiber and downstream yarn enterprises will experience more widespread production cuts and shutdowns in May. The operating rate will further decrease, and weak demand will suppress polyester staple fiber prices.
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