1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, as of April 19, the average spot market price of nickel was 202033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 18.89%. Since the beginning of the new year in February, nickel prices have fallen for a month, and after a month of consolidation at a low level, they finally experienced a phased rebound on April 7th, rebounding 8.76% in just 12 days, breaking the 200000 mark.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
Ten year historical price curve of nickel:
According to the price data of the Business Society, the current nickel price is at a relatively high level in 12 years, and has rebounded to the platform level in October 22. There may be some resistance to a rebound in the price here.
April is positive, and nickel fundamentals have improved
1. Sudden earthquake in Indonesia: On April 14th, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred on Java Island, Indonesia, with a depth of 600 kilometers. Indonesian nickel ore products account for about 30% of the world’s nickel production and are the world’s largest nickel supplier. This earthquake event has created a hype point for the nickel market, which has driven a significant rebound in nickel prices due to supply concerns.
2. There is a possibility of delay in the addition of nickel electrowinning projects: since the beginning of the year, a number of new nickel electrowinning projects have emerged in China, with a total production capacity of nearly 200000 tons in the future. The main raw materials are MHP, high nickel matte, and nickel sulfate. However, some projects are planned to be postponed due to economic and environmental issues in the early stages.
3. There is a certain shortage of spot nickel in Russia: due to political conflicts, Russian nickel resources in overseas regions are relatively scarce, and LME inventory has been reduced to below 42000 tons, with the holding inventory ratio reaching its highest level in nearly three years. There is a certain shortage of Russian nickel spot in the overseas market, with Jinchuan and Russian nickel premiums hanging upside down. Recently, with the continuous closure of import windows, the domestic nickel spot market has shown a certain tightness.
4. The transaction price of stainless steel factory procurement has increased compared to before: the improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports nickel prices, and there are news in the secondary market of nickel iron that the transaction price of stainless steel factory centralized procurement has increased compared to before, improving market confidence.
5. Inventory is still at a low level
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Previously, the two major peaks in nickel fundamentals, the increase in Russian nickel supply and the addition of new production capacity for electrowinning nickel, both eased in April. With the speculation that the Indonesian earthquake may affect nickel supply and the fact that nickel prices have fallen to lower levels, the situation has rebounded significantly. However, downstream demand remains insufficient.
Comparison Chart of Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices
From the comparison chart of nickel and stainless steel prices in the Business Society, it can be seen that stainless steel is downstream of nickel. Although stainless steel has rebounded due to the influence of raw material nickel, its strength is clearly insufficient. Because the overall demand for stainless steel is weak. In March, steel mills began a centralized production reduction, with a stainless steel production of approximately 2.675 million tons in March, a decrease of 5.41% month on month and 11.62% year on year.
From the perspective of the downstream new energy industry, downstream orders are still weak, with a decrease of 6.33% in the production of ternary precursors and 12.45% in the production of ternary materials. This is mainly due to a decrease in high nickel content, and the negative feedback effect of car company promotions on the upstream raw material end is still ongoing.
In summary, nickel prices have been temporarily stabilized and rebounded due to tight supply expectations. However, with the rise of nickel prices, the profit margin for MHP or nickel sulfate production of electrowinning nickel has recovered. If the electrolytic nickel production line continues to rise significantly in the future, it will accelerate production and suppress nickel. And downstream demand has not really improved, suppressing the upward trend of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to be boosted by news and driven by funding, showing short-term improvement, but still being suppressed in the medium to long term.
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