The aluminum price fluctuated widely
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 10, 2023 was 18583.33 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, it was basically in a long and short position in February, with a wide range of sideways shocks.
In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, with an increase of 6.49% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingot of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the recent recovery (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88%.
The aluminum price fluctuated widely in February, and the main factors for the decline on the 10th were:
1. Expected strengthening of supply increase
The supply increase is expected to strengthen, and the production resumption plan of Guizhou Province to reduce production capacity has been put on the agenda. The time for enterprises to resume production varies from late February to early April. The electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan Province has resumed to nearly 70%, and Linfeng Aluminum Power has also resumed production; The news of production reduction in the early stage has not come to the ground yet, and the previously rumored power shortage in Yunnan will drive the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase the scale of production reduction by 60-8 million tons has not been fulfilled in time.
2. Weak cost support
The cost support is weakened, the price of alumina is basically stable, the price of anode in February is reduced by 660 yuan/ton month on month, and the price of steam coal is down.
3. There are many factories and warehouses
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The accumulated inventory before and after the Spring Festival is in line with market expectations, but there are many factories and warehouses; As of February 9, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 173000 tons to 1188000 tons from the end of January, which is in the normal accumulation range; However, compared with the end of January, the factory warehouse increased by 35000 tons to 233000 tons, higher than the previous year’s level. Delivery pressure is concentrated on the manufacturer.
4. Downstream consumption is less than expected
After the Lantern Festival, the consumption was less than expected, the terminal construction was average, and the relevant new orders were average.
Aftermarket forecast
After the wide fluctuation of aluminum prices, there is a trend of jumping out of the operating range. It is expected that there will be little room to continue to decline in the short term. In the evening trading today, affected by the factors of the reduction of Russian crude oil production, we will wait and see whether the exploration of crude oil prices can drive the enthusiasm of futures speculation.
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