1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6375 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average ex-factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5400 yuan/ton on December 31. In 2022, the total price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 15.29%. The highest price of chlorinated paraffin in the year is 6737 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in the year is 5400 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
In 2022, the market trend of chlorinated paraffin will fluctuate and decline. From the beginning of the year, the price of chlorinated paraffins fluctuated at a high level, rose to the highest level in March and then fell to August, rebounded from the bottom and rose again to October, and fell again to the end of the year in November. According to the chart of the rise and fall of 2022, the largest increase in the year was in March, with an increase of 9.61%. The biggest drop in the year was in December, with a drop of 7.95%.
Phase I
In January, the domestic chlorinated paraffin price fell by 7.45%.. In late January, the raw liquid chlorine was generally lowered, and the cost support was weakened. The market supply and demand of chlorinated paraffins are weak, and the prices of different regions are different. The national standard chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong fell below 5000 yuan/ton. Chlorinated paraffin is in the off-season, and the demand side is weak as a whole. As the Spring Festival approaches, the transportation is blocked and the manufacturers are shutting down one after another.
Phase II
From February to March, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to rise by 13.56%. Due to the continuous increase in raw material prices and good cost support, chlorinated paraffins rose sharply. Downstream operation rate increased and demand began to follow up. Under the support of cost, chlorinated paraffin has a good trend. However, the epidemic broke out in many places in China, and the transportation was affected to some extent.
Phase III
From April to July, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to decline by 12.19%. The market of raw liquid chlorine is poor and the cost support is insufficient. Some enterprises have shut down production, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin has decreased. Downstream demand is weak, and on-site trading is cold. The price of chlorinated paraffins fell to a low level, and the downstream was cautious to wait and see under the bearish market condition.
Phase IV
From August to October, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffin continued to rise by 5.96%. The market trend of raw liquid chlorine is stable and rising, and the cost support is improving. Before the National Day, there is a demand for stock in the downstream, and the intra-field trading volume is increased. The manufacturer’s shipment was stable and the focus of transaction was increased.
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Phase V
From November to December, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to decline by 13.37%. The cost support of chlorinated paraffins weakened, the demand side continued to be weak, and more purchases were made on demand, with fewer transactions. Due to the impact of domestic epidemic transportation, the price difference between different regions in China is large. In order to digest the inventory and reduce the price for shipment, the focus of the chlorinated paraffin market moved downward.
Annual data
In 2022, the global total production capacity of chlorinated paraffins will be about 3.1 million tons, mainly concentrated in China, accounting for 65% of the global total production capacity. In 2022, the market size of chlorinated paraffins in China will reach 5.381 billion yuan, and the global market size of chlorinated paraffins will reach 14.481 billion yuan. In 2022, China’s chlorinated paraffin enterprises have reached more than 1000, mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other regions, among which there are a large number of chlorinated paraffin enterprises in Henan.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the Business Society, there is still overcapacity in chlorinated paraffin in 2022, and the inventory is lower than in previous years. In the first half of 2022, it was at a high level and the trend in the second half was weak. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffins will be consolidated in 2023, mainly depending on the change of demand side.
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