According to the monitoring of the business community, the POM market in 2022 began to run at 20666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall in early July. As of January 2, 2023, the POM price was 13933.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 32.58% throughout the year. The trend was high before and low after, with a large decline.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
The trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly divided into two stages:
The first stage: deadlock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM was 20666.67 yuan/ton on January 1 and 21333.33 yuan/ton on June 30, with a range increase of 3.23%. In the first quarter of this year, the supply of POM continued the tight pattern of last year, and the price rose at a high level. From the end of March to the end of June, although the supply side remained tight, the market demand began to decline in full authority. At the same time, the stock position began to rise. By the middle of the year, the stock in the market was high, and the price position driven by the strong market in 2021 began to loosen. At the whole stage, the market remained stuck at a high level.
The second stage: weak decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM from 21,333.33 yuan/ton on June 30 to 13,933.33 yuan/ton on January 2 at the beginning of 2023, the price fell rapidly, and the overall price hit the bottom, with an overall decline of 34.69%. At the beginning of this stage, POM officially entered the traditional demand off-season market, and the consumption of downstream enterprises was weak, and there was no large-scale replenishment in procurement. In addition, the high level of inventory at the end of June was taken over, and the bad news was superimposed. The spot price fell rapidly. The decline was concentrated in the three months of the third quarter, including the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver”, which also failed to stimulate demand. This year’s POM peak season is not strong. In the second half of the year, the industry load and supply remained at a high level, while the demand did not improve. After the market fell rapidly, it found a balance point. Around October, the price level was about 13500 yuan/ton, which was stable and dynamic until the end of the year.
Overall, the trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:
The demand of terminal enterprises has weakened, and the POM market has been dragged down
The downstream of POM is mainly concentrated in electronic appliances, consumer goods, automobile industry, industrial machinery and other fields. In 2022, the overall demand of downstream enterprises will be insufficient, which will gradually drag POM from its high level operation in the first half of the year to the supply and demand contradiction market. At the beginning of the year, due to the high price of POM, the cost pressure of downstream enterprises increased, and the impact of the inflation environment on real enterprises, downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were affected by this, and many of them suffered losses, and the stock level contracted.
Industry development remains stable, high-end models rely on imports
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In recent years, the domestic POM industry has been cautious in expanding production and capacity, and there are few new units put into production. In the consumption of POM, electrical appliances, automobiles and machinery account for 67% of the total domestic consumption, and these products are mainly high-end products with high requirements for the quality of raw materials for parts. Generally, imported products are used. China’s POM import dependence level is about 50%, and is concentrated in high-end products. Most domestic brands are basic products, and the supply is excessive. The market competition is fierce, forming a certain pressure on the market.
The enterprise starts at a high level and keeps the supply side under pressure
In 2022, domestic POM enterprises will start at a high level throughout the year, with the monthly average operating rate as high as 88.65%. Only during the Spring Festival in February, the domestic load will reach 72.49%. In the rest of the month, the load will remain at a high level, and the operation at full operating level in the last quarter will be more stable. In terms of output, the monthly average shipment was 36000 tons, and the annual performance was stable. However, the downstream demand lags behind, the on-site supply is excessive, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually rising due to the warehouse construction. The market price fell under pressure, the mentality of the seller camp became weaker, and the operation was biased towards giving up profits and taking orders.
Future market forecast: POM analysts from the business community believe that the domestic POM industry will develop steadily in 2022, the demand of downstream enterprises will gradually lag behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be obvious in the second half of the year. The upstream operates with vibration, and the cost end is generally supported. The load of POM enterprises is high in the second half of the year, and the inventory pressure is high. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the POM market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the POM industry will suffer from bad news, and the activities will tend to be conservative with average market momentum. It is expected that the POM market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.
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