Ethylene glycol price bottom support strengthened
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4058.33 yuan/ton on December 20, basically unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of futures, the main contract eg2301 on the 20th closed at 4080 yuan/ton, up 0.27%.
On December 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price of mainstream manufacturers in East China remained at 4100 yuan/ton; At the trade flow end, the spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang market has slightly loosened. The spot negotiation price is around 4045 yuan/ton that week, and the forward spot contract is about 4055 yuan/ton in January.
Recently, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the price has improved slightly, mainly based on the following factors:
1. Supply side: The unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased due to the large loss of domestic production profits. At present, the overall operating rate remains at a low level, and the overseas operation is also at a low level under the influence of poor efficiency. According to statistics, as of December 15, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 56.00%, down 0.12% compared with the previous period, of which the starting load of coal to ethylene glycol was 38.56%, down 0.77% compared with the previous period.
2. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons month on month.
3. Strengthened cost support: the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level. At present, the price of ethylene glycol is relatively low, and domestic manufacturers have serious losses.
4. Periodic recovery of downstream demand: terminal orders increased in December, production and sales of polyester fiber improved, and inventory of polyester manufacturers decreased. The demand for goods in the first ten days of December is good.
The main reasons for the lack of space are:
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
1. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons month on month.
2. Downstream operating rate is expected to move down periodically: public health factors will be superimposed on the approaching holidays, the production of terminal weaving plants will be reduced, the operating load of polyester is not high, and the demand for ethylene glycol may be relatively low.
3. New production capacity is expected to be strong: the medium and long term ethylene glycol production capacity is under great pressure.
in summary:
At present, the downstream is basically in the state of digesting the stock in the first ten days of December. The atmosphere of purchasing in the market is light. From the perspective of demand side fundamentals, terminal orders have increased, polyester production and sales have improved, and polyester manufacturers’ stocks have decreased, supporting the decline of ethylene glycol prices; However, with the approaching Spring Festival superimposed with Omikjon factors, the downstream operating rate is expected to move downward periodically; On the supply side, although the operating rate of ethylene glycol is low, the port inventory has rebounded, and the pressure on the production of new ethylene glycol production capacity in the medium and long term is large, so the price of ethylene glycol is weak.
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