In 2022, the domestic butadiene market will generally rise first and then fall. In the first half of the year, it will mainly rise unilaterally, while in the second half of the year, it will fluctuate and decline. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic butadiene producers will be 4451 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6366 yuan/ton as of December 7, with an overall increase of 43.03%. The lowest price appeared at 4180 yuan/ton on January 5 of the year beginning, and the highest price appeared at 12096 yuan/ton on June 9 of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 171.75%. The highest price in the year was almost the same as that in 2021.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
In the first half of 2022, the domestic butadiene market has risen unilaterally, from 4451 yuan/ton on January 1 to 12096 yuan/ton on June 9, with an overall increase of 171.75%. The main factors influencing the sharp rise of butadiene market in the first half of the year are as follows: first, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the overall environment developed well, the petrochemical industry chain rose actively, and butadiene cost was supported; Secondly, the high price of the external market drives the domestic market. The external price of Europe and Southeast Asia has risen significantly several times, and traders have followed suit; Third, the manufacturers kept raising the ex factory quotation to give confidence support to the market. Some manufacturers did not maintain their equipment or supply goods for export temporarily. The supply side also formed a strong positive effect on the market. The butadiene market performance in the first half of the year was “eye-catching”.
In the second half of the year, the domestic butadiene market was “flying downward”, and the price trend declined slowly. The price fell from 12096 yuan/ton on June 10 to 6636 yuan/ton on December 7, a decline of 47.37%. The main factors affecting the price market in the second half of the year are supply and demand. On the one hand, the main manufacturers in the Northeast, which had stopped work and were not for export temporarily, started bidding sales in the second half of the year. Although the total amount is small, it has added a little burden to the tight supply level; On the other hand, the demand is insufficient, the main downstream rubber industry is in recession, the unit operation rate is low, and the price is also low. The contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, the international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the effect of the external market is not strong, and the butadiene market is difficult to turn around.
It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the butadiene industry chain of the business community that the products in the butadiene industry chain with prices falling all year round include styrene butadiene rubber (-11.31%), ABS (-20.54%), nitrile butadiene rubber (-37.14%) and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (-26.31%). The products with rising prices include butadiene (43.03%) and naphtha (1.11%).
According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 14290 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10619 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.69%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 12233 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10689 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.62%.
In 2022, the price center of butadiene market will recover from last year. The annual market price change is mainly caused by the combination of supply and demand fundamentals and other factors, among which the supply and demand fundamentals are the main driving factor affecting the annual price change. During the year, the price of the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, which led to a sharp rise in the price of the external market, making the domestic butadiene market price rise significantly. After the price rose to a high point, with the pressure on downstream costs, it was difficult to keep up with the high price of butadiene, and some downstream manufacturers reduced production, which weakened the demand side’s support for price; At the same time, in the second half of the year, some new butadiene production capacity continued to release, the market supply was abundant, the supply side was also difficult to support the price, and the price continued to decline.
According to incomplete statistics, the annual new capacity of butadiene in China will be relatively small in 2023. At the same time, it is expected that there will be new units in the downstream or continue to be put into production, and the demand increment will be greater than the supply end increment. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the butadiene market price may recover in the beginning of 2023.
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