According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first rising and then falling in November. As of November 27, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 5550 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days, thanks to the good supply of crude oil and its own, the shock became stronger. However, since the middle of the year, the new devices are about to be launched, the cost is weakening, and the demand is poor. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA price shows a downward trend.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
On the supply side, the production of new PTA devices was delayed in the first ten days of November, and the load of large plants was reduced, which boosted the upward price shock of PTA. However, with the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. The current industry operating rate remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise.
After the middle of November, the international crude oil price also fell significantly. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 77.94 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 85.41 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase was far from over. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. On the whole, crude oil prices declined.
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The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and exchange of price for quantity. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, and the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the burden, reducing the demand for PTA.
Analysts from the business community believe that PTA cost support is somewhat loose at present, and terminal demand is weak. Downstream polyester is facing double pressures of high inventory and low profits, so there is a weakening expectation on the cost side and the demand side. However, under the influence of the current tight PTA spot liquidity and poor logistics, the downward trend of PTA will be restrained. On the whole, PTA prices in December were still volatile and weak.
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