1、 Price data
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 8144.75 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from 8186.33 yuan/ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 80000-8200 yuan/ton.
As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7759.00 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from 7838.67 yuan/ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7700-7900 yuan/ton.
On November 20, the naphtha commodity index was 100.52, unchanged from yesterday, 17.36% lower than the highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 137.97% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the terminal ethylene and reforming were lack of obvious advantages. The purchase was based on demand, the refinery was active in shipping, and the merchants were mainly wait-and-see. The transaction was cautious.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Upstream: The international crude oil price fell in shock, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over, and it was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week. On November 11, the price was 7410 yuan/ton, and on November 18, the price was 7440 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On November 11, the price was 8040 yuan/ton, and on November 18, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, 0.75% higher than that of last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.
3、 Future market forecast
The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; The terminal ethylene and reforming are lack of obvious advantages, and the procurement is mainly based on demand. The merchants have a strong wait-and-see mood and are cautious in the transaction. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future will fluctuate downward.
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