According to the data of the business community, the average price of the silver market in the morning on October 14 was 4411.67 yuan/kg, a daily drop of 0.71%, up 0.99% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1) of 4367.33 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 4770 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.51%.
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On October 14, the spot gold market price was 392.24 yuan/g, down 0.14% on a daily basis, up 0.62% from the early average of 389.84 yuan/g at the beginning of the month (October 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 5.34%.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year
In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Macro policy
1. Domestic policy
The People’s Bank of China launched a 7-day 10 billion yuan reverse repo operation this week. Since 357 billion yuan reverse repo expired this week, a net withdrawal of 347 billion yuan was realized that week.
2. International policy
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 5.30 basis points to 3.901%. The UK 30-year bond yield fell 31 basis points to 4.24%.
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According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50% – 3.75% in November is 3.7%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 96.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; By December, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 1.0%, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 27.6%, and the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 71.5%.
Kazaks, the governing committee of the European Central Bank, said that the European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 75 basis points in October, and then raise interest rates sharply again in December. Subsequently, the European Central Bank should slow down the rate of interest increase, but it may be supplemented by other measures, such as shrinking the balance sheet. The new internal model submitted by the staff of the European Central Bank to the Management Committee at the meeting last week shows that the terminal interest rate of this round of interest rate increase cycle is 2.25%.
Future market forecast
Recently, the contradiction of geopolitical conflict has escalated, the European energy crisis has continued, the risk aversion of precious metals has been boosted, and the risk aversion buying has supported precious metals. However, the consumer inflation of the core CPI in the United States hit a new 40 year high in September, and the service inflation continued to rise. The CPI achieved the fourth consecutive interest rate increase of 75 basis points in November. The risk of the Federal Reserve postponing the rate increase originally scheduled to slow down from December has increased, and the rate increase is expected to curb the price of interest free precious metals. The long short game intensified, and the price of precious metals fluctuated widely in the short term.
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