The monitoring shows that on April 25, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate and decrease, with an increase over the previous days. The main force closed at 12665 yuan / ton, and the spot market adjusted downward by about 300-350 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12260 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from the quotation on the previous trading day and 8.76% year-on-year.
Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: according to the latest ANRPC report, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons in March; Among the production areas, India and Yunnan have fully opened cutting and increased production. Hainan has opened cutting at the end of April and early May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around mid May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by the recent public health events in China, and the local short-distance transportation in some provinces and cities has improved. It is reported that the operating rate of some tire enterprises in Shandong has rebounded for a short time. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to a document issued by the Federation of passenger cars, the national passenger car market was affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. Inventory: in the previous period, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures in the week of 22nd increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.
Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.
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