The domestic bisphenol a market fluctuated in 2021, showing an “m” trend as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, the bisphenol a market made rapid progress in the first quarter, from the lowest point of 12725 yuan / ton in the year to the highest point of 29933 yuan / ton in the year (April 16), with the maximum amplitude of 135%, reaching a record high (incomplete statistics are the highest point in 20 years). The downward trend has been obvious since April 16. The market corrected in early June, but there was a lack of real benefits, and the downward trend ended at the end of the second quarter. In the second half of the year, bisphenol A entered another round of high and deep decline. At the beginning, domestic devices were regulated by the “double control” policy, and the energy and chemical sector showed an upward trend. However, with the production of new devices in the fourth quarter and the impact of downstream demand, the market fell down in September. After two consecutive months of subduction and decline, the weakness was adjusted to the end of the year, and the market stalemate was around 16000 yuan / ton, In the last week of December, it rose again to 16750 yuan / ton. Looking at the whole year, 2021 is a very unusual year for bisphenol A products. The annual market has ups and downs, completely separated from the market at the raw material end, and walked out of an independent landscape. On the contrary, the attention of the downstream has increased significantly. Near the end of the year, review the market of the year together.
In the first stage, the “bull market” of bisphenol a market was ignited in the first quarter, with a rapid increase of 135%
Entering 2021, the overall tight spot supply of bisphenol A and the lack of market supply are the main reasons for the “bull market” of bisphenol A. After the sharp rise and fall in 2020, the market supply is extremely tight. At this time, the downstream epoxy resin industry is driven by the impact of wind power subsidies. In the first quarter, the bisphenol a market hit a new high in a decade. According to the monitoring data of business society, on January 1, 2021, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 13000 yuan / ton, up to 26500 yuan / ton by the end of the quarter, with an increase of 100.4%. As of April 16, the market offer was 29933 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 135% in the cycle.
Firstly, at the beginning of the year, the operating rate of bisphenol a plant decreased, and there were few and concentrated sources of imported goods during the Spring Festival. After the festival, with the improvement of downstream market procurement, the supply of bisphenol A was tight, and the cargo holders soared sharply, with a daily increase of 1000 yuan.
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Secondly, after the Spring Festival, the extremely cold weather in Europe caused a large area of damage to overseas devices, fueled by the demand of the international market, and the linkage of bulk commodities increased significantly. At this time, the main downstream epoxy resin of bisphenol A was strongly affected by the wind power and electronics industry, and the operating rate of PC end finishing decreased. However, the industrial capacity increased, the demand expectation for bisphenol A increased, and the market offer continued to rise.
Again, the cost side is good support. Affected by the sharp rise of crude oil during the holidays, all products are now making a good start on the first working day after the festival, and the market heat is rising. Especially in the chemical industry circle, the price rise information has opened various screen brushing modes. In the year of the ox, the phenol Market kept reaching new highs. According to the data of the business society, the phenol market increased from 6000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9000 yuan / ton at the end of the quarter. Another important raw material acetone has experienced a wave of upward movement before the festival. After the festival, the guiding price of Sinopec North China acetone has increased by 1200 yuan / ton, and that of East China plant has increased by 900-1200 yuan / ton, with an implementation rate of 9000-9300 yuan / ton. Raw materials continue to rise, and the cost side supports the continuous rise of bisphenol a market. Although there is a large upward space for dual raw materials, it is still small compared with bisphenol A. bisphenol A showed a unilateral market in the first quarter, with optimistic industry gross profit, which is very bright in the chemical industry.
In the second stage, bisphenol a continued to soar in the second quarter and plunged sharply, cutting the market.
In the second quarter, the quarterly trend continued in mid and early April and continued to rise. As of the 16th, the average market offer was 29933 yuan / ton. The high bisphenol A was difficult for the downstream to digest, the terminal enterprises were difficult to deliver orders and even broke the contract, so they had to stop work and suspend receiving orders. The market plunged after a few days of high stalemate. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 26833 yuan / ton on April 1, 29933 yuan / ton on April 16, 20300 yuan / ton on June 3, and then rebounded slightly to 22800 yuan / ton. However, the upward positive support was limited, and then fell back. As of June 30, the market offer was 20340 yuan / ton.
First of all, the bulk chemical market was named in the second quarter. The State Council held several meetings to mention the bulk market, which attracted market attention. The chemical industry continued to decline, and bisphenol A was hardly spared. After entering the downward channel, although the offer of the cargo holders continued to decline, the terminal was difficult to improve.
Secondly, after the market fell due to misconduct, the leading enterprise Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton per day and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, resulting in an increase in negative factors. The transaction situation is even worse, and the mentality is seriously frustrated, which is difficult to say good. Subject to the sluggish terminal demand market, the bearish mentality of cargo holders is serious, and the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases.
Thirdly, the cost side fell, and after the bulk market was named, the chemical industry showed a downward trend as a whole. There was bad news under the industrial chain, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The expected price of bisphenol A in East China market fell to 20000 yuan / ton.
In the third stage, the supply of goods at home and abroad was tight, the shipping schedule was delayed, and under the imbalance of supply and demand, bisphenol a continued to open high, the superimposed Petrochemical auction reached new highs, and the high-level mode was gradually consolidated.
From July to August, the internal and external tension of bisphenol A was highlighted again, the import shipping schedule was delayed, the market spot circulation was tense again, and the expected maintenance plans of domestic enterprises were constantly reported, and some contract quantities were supplied to corresponding customers for a long time, and the spot tension was increasing. On July 1, the market offer was 20500 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the market offer was 28040 yuan / ton. In August, the average price reached the second monthly high in the year! Specifically:
First, the external price is relatively high, the supply of imported resources is small except for the contract, and it is difficult to improve the expected supply in the future. Since April, the import of bisphenol A has remained within 40000 tons for four consecutive months. In July, Mitsui chemical’s 65000 T / a unit was overhauled for one month. In Singapore, it was shut down for 10 days. In late August, South Korea’s Jinhu line 2 began to shut down for maintenance until early September. In September, the periodic inspection of South Asia No. 2 and No. 3 units in Taiwan was carried out until early October. Downstream and importers were worried about follow-up risks and had little interest in negotiation. It is expected that the import in September is still a probability event within 40000 tons. The amount of spot circulation resources of bisphenol A is relatively small. Domestic enterprises mainly supply oriented contracts. Some enterprises are close to overhaul or prepare for subsequent overhaul, and regulate the proportion of export commodities. The internal and external superposition is that bisphenol a spot resources are tight and it is difficult to improve in the future.
Second, the seven rounds of bidding of petrochemical enterprises rose from 20000 yuan / ton to 20950 yuan / ton, which injected a booster into the market, boosted market confidence and greatly improved the industry mentality. At this time, the inventory of downstream resin raw materials is low, and there is a demand for stock replenishment. Although the industry was not in the off-season at that time, the industry’s expectation of raw materials fell and there was basically no inventory of raw materials. Then, Nantong Xingchen and Sanmu, the leading enterprises of the industry, stopped for a short time and prepared goods for driving. Under the original tight supply situation, the market was hard to find a lot of goods, and the negotiation atmosphere increased, which helped push the market upward.
In the fourth stage, the “golden nine and silver ten” suffered a cold winter, stumbled and fell to the end of the year, stuck at 16000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 43% in four months.
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The transfer of high costs was not smooth, and the sharp rise of related products eroded bisphenol A’s decline to spit out the cost space. In September, the industrial chain repeatedly suppressed the market, and the market fell. The market offer was 28040 yuan / ton on September 1 and 16000 yuan / ton as of December 23, a cumulative decline of 43%. In these four months, the decline was obvious in the early stage and the decline rate was fast. In the later stage, bisphenol A was in a continuous stalemate, which was very obvious in the bidding price of petrochemical industry.
Since September, bisphenol A has entered the downward channel, and the related product ECH has soared. With the further rise of ECH, the space of bisphenol A has been squeezed, the bearish atmosphere in the market has increased, and the middlemen actively follow the import and export goods according to the market. Under the guidance of the bidding price of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical every week, the decline has been amplified. At the end of September, some traders have said that they will not offer any more, falling nearly 1000 yuan in one day, Market offer to 22167 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of raw material ECH led to a sharp increase in the cost of epoxy resin. Driven by the cost, epoxy resin had to be overestimated, but bisphenol A had to callback and give up part of the cost space. After the National Day holiday, the demand decline was difficult to change. With the production and output of Tianjin Zhongsha unit, the operating load of downstream PC units decreased. In late October, domestic maintenance units were completed one after another, and the supply was expected to increase. However, it was difficult for the demand side to be stimulated by positive news. The pressure of the owner’s offer fell, the inquiry of the purchasing side was low, and the auction of a petrochemical in East China continued to fall, In the two months at the end of the year, the market continued to be depressed and deadlocked at 16000 yuan / ton. In the last week of the year, bisphenol A rebounded strongly to 16750 yuan / ton again, but there were few transactions on the floor, and we still need to pay attention to the follow-up actual orders.
Frequent price fluctuations, sharp rises and falls have become the main tone of market operation in 2021. As of December 28, 2021, the average price of bisphenol A was 22491.06 yuan / ton, an increase of 10832.56 yuan / ton, or about 93%, compared with the average price of 11658.5 yuan / ton in 2020. The annual lowest price of 12725 yuan / ton appeared on January 4, and the highest price of 29933 yuan / ton appeared on April 16, a record high. In 2021, the maximum fluctuation range of bisphenol a market was 17208 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 135%. As of December 28, 2021, the mainstream transaction price of bisphenol A in East China was 16000 yuan / ton, an increase of 3375 yuan / ton or 22.1% over the price at the beginning of the year. What about the bisphenol a market in the future?
From the supply side, the output of bisphenol A in China has been increasing in recent years, and bisphenol A will enter a high business cycle in the next five years.
In 2021, the production capacity of bisphenol A in China will be about 1.77 million tons, and the comprehensive operating rate of major bisphenol A units will be 70%, which is at a high level. It is expected that from 2022, with the continuous operation of bisphenol A units under construction, the annual output is expected to gradually increase. In the first five years, China’s import of bisphenol A increased slowly, and the import dependence of bisphenol A was close to 30%. It is expected that in the future, with the significant increase of domestic production capacity, the import dependence of bisphenol A is expected to continue to decline.
From the demand side, the downstream demand is concentrated in PC and epoxy resin, and the downstream production will continue to expand in the future. The downstream demand structure of bisphenol A is concentrated, which is mainly used for PC and epoxy resin, accounting for almost half of each. With the continuous operation of new downstream PC and epoxy resin units, the demand for bisphenol A is expected to increase significantly.
At present, the downstream epoxy resin of bisphenol A has a capacity under construction of 1.54 million tons and PC has a capacity under construction of 1.425 million tons. These capacities will be put into operation in the next 2-3 years, which will strongly stimulate the demand for bisphenol A.
From the perspective of cost, domestic bisphenol A will leave the cost line in 2021, and the gross profit margin will increase significantly.
The comparison between bisphenol A and upstream commodity index in the figure above shows that bisphenol A is completely out of the trend of cost line and high. In 2021, the bisphenol a market soared and plummeted, and the annual average price in 2021 was still 22500 yuan / ton. Calculated according to the theoretical profit of bisphenol A (0.87 * Phenol + 0.27 * acetone + 2300, the price of phenol and acetone here is calculated according to the factory price in East China, and the actual market situation is slightly different), the annual average gross profit of bisphenol A was around 47.5%, which should be the best year since the industrialization of bisphenol A in China in history. In 2021, the downstream demand for bisphenol a further increased, the market supply was tight throughout the year, and the annual average price increased by 93% compared with last year.
To sum up, the future development of bisphenol a market will mainly focus on the production capacity and output increase of bisphenol A enterprises expected to be put into operation, as well as the production capacity increase of downstream PC and epoxy resin enterprises.
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